Camera Sales and Market Share

[HDNitehawk]

Yep. I am wondering where the bottom is (as I am sure are the manufacturers). But where is the long term demand for ILCs? I find it interesting that 2020 and 2021 are likely to be very similar, perhaps even an increase in 2021 ILCs produced. Granted...pandemic. But, is 5M units/yr the long term demand? Are there enough enthusiasts/pros to support that level?

There was a large surge in sales as Digital replaced Film. I believe it was fueled by economically priced DsLR's and there was no cost in processing film. Many who never had a film camera bought in and it created the spike. Over the years the fall off is reflected in this forum. Back in the day this was a busy place, there are just a few regulars left.

In your graph though we should see an uptick in mirrorless when DsLR's are no more. I would have thought it would have been noticeable already.

Phones are getting better. I shot the X-mas present opening this year with my new iPad rather than the R5. Results were fine for what I was doing.
Possibly only people using ILC's in a few years will be those of us who use it as a specialty item rather than a tool to shoot family events.

[Kayaker72]

In your graph though we should see an uptick in mirrorless when DsLR's are no more. I would have thought it would have been noticeable already.

Phones are getting better. I shot the X-mas present opening this year with my new iPad rather than the R5. Results were fine for what I was doing.
Possibly only people using ILC's in a few years will be those of us who use it as a specialty item rather than a tool to shoot family events.

I was surprised both by how high numbers were at in 2012 and that there had not been an uptick in 2020. But, thinking back to 2012 there were a good number out at the time (Sony, Oly, Samsung, and even the Canon EOS M). Many of them inexpensive and likely sold in good volumes.

What also interested me was the 141M number. I assume some ILCs met some sort of untimely demise and that a number of users have multiple bodies. But, assuming 100M ILC users, say the average user refreshes their camera every 15 years, that is 6.6M ILCs/yr. This doesn't include new users...and, of course, doesn't include attrition. But I have never had a problem selling a used lens: 7D, 5DIII, M, and M3 were all sold quickly (whereas some lenses haven't sold when I tried). I really do wonder if the 5M ILCs/year is the floor/long term sustained market. Trying to bracket the average ILC cost, assuming it is somewhere between $750 to $1,500, would be a $3.75B to $7.5B annual market, not including lenses.