Camera Sales and Market Share

As it has come up in recent discussions, I thought I would look into it a bit more and also start a new thread.

I went back to the CIPA data and looked at Interchangeable Lens Cameras (ILCs) only from 2010 until present. As 2021 is not yet complete, here are the production (vs shipped) totals for each year through 2020 broken down by ILC totals, DSLRs, and mirrorless.

Attachment 2933

This graph represents a total of 141M ILCs produced from 2010-2020.

As for 2021, through October there have been 4.4M ILCs produced, 1.8M DSLRs and 2.4M Mirrorless. In general, 2021 is tracking to be about the same ILCs produced as 2020, unless something changes dramatically in Nov-Dec.

What strikes me most is that Mirrorless sales are not really increasing. Rather, they have been remarkably steady since first tracked in 2012. DSLRs peaked in 2012 and ILC production numbers have been following DSLRs down since.

Next, over in the R3 thread, we started talking about brands with some discussion regarding which brand was shifting faster, etc.

First, most of the articles I found reporting the Nikkei market assessment focused on total "digital camera" sales, which would be ILCs + fixed lens cameras. I mostly found data from 2018 through 2020 for digital cameras and used that data to generate:

Attachment 2934

I did find an article from 2018 breaking it down by ILC, which reported Canon 49.1% of the ILC market, Sony 24.9% and Nikon at 13%. Using the total ILCs produced as reported by CIPA in 2018, this is equivalent to 5.35M ILCs produced by Canon in 2018, 2.7M by Sony, and 1.45M by Nikon. Compare this to the results reported by DPR for 2020 of 2.76M ILCs by Canon, and 1.15M for both Sony and Nikon and we can start to answer the question from HDNitehawk in that Canon ILCs produced decreased from 2018 to 2020 by 48.5%, Sony by 57.7%, and Nikon by 20.8% while the number of ILCs produced overall decreased by 51.8%.

This is mostly just information for those of us that are curious about the market. Volume does not make the best camera. But, I will say I am happy to be invested in a brand that is, comparatively, doing well.

BTW....not sure why, but I was having trouble inserting some links into that post. For the data I used to generate the second graph, digital camera sales from 2018, 2019, and 2020. ILC data from 2018.

Thanks, Brant. Great analysis!

We know that the point and shoot camera sales were devastated to people moving to their cell phone. I wonder if the same thing is happening to a lesser extent with the low end DsLR's.

In the Sony vs Canon debate, Sony is dominating the cell phone sensor market.
That is one reason I have trouble buying in to the doom and gloom for Sony. In many respects they are more of a sensor company making camera bodies as a sideline. You can tell this in their reports, they brag on their sensors and say little about selling cameras.

Sony is a large conglomerate, of the world stopped buying ILCs tomorrow they’d be fine. I’m not sure if it’s still true, but in the recent past most of the revenue came from their financial services division, not from selling electronics. However, they do have a history of cutting or cutting back unprofitable product lines (Vaio computers, mobile phones which are now sold only in Europe and a few Asian countries). Cameras are in a different business unit than sensors.

I do think that smart phones are eroding the DSLR market, and are also responsible for the flat sales of MILCs. Consider that an iPhone 13 Pro is like having an MILC in your pocket with 13mm, 26mm and 77mm lenses (except they’re not really interchangeable lenses, so yay for Sony who gets to sell Apple three image sensors per iPhone).

Market saturation could be a partial explanation ... ILCs can last a long time when properly cared for and I suspect most customers are not that keen on staying at the cutting edge of technology if their "old" camera works well and provides them with adequate images. Also I suspect one camera is good enough for many families. People like us, here on this forum, are actually a tiny fraction of the market.

:) Thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Joel Eade

Market saturation could be a partial explanation ... ILCs can last a long time when properly cared for and I suspect most customers are not that keen on staying at the cutting edge of technology if their "old" camera works well and provides them with adequate images. Also I suspect one camera is good enough for many families. People like us, here on this forum, are actually a tiny fraction of the market.

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Yep. I am wondering where the bottom is (as I am sure are the manufacturers). But where is the long term demand for ILCs? I find it interesting that 2020 and 2021 are likely to be very similar, perhaps even an increase in 2021 ILCs produced. Granted...pandemic. But, is 5M units/yr the long term demand? Are there enough enthusiasts/pros to support that level?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kayaker72

Yep. I am wondering where the bottom is (as I am sure are the manufacturers). But where is the long term demand for ILCs? I find it interesting that 2020 and 2021 are likely to be very similar, perhaps even an increase in 2021 ILCs produced. Granted...pandemic. But, is 5M units/yr the long term demand? Are there enough enthusiasts/pros to support that level?

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There was a large surge in sales as Digital replaced Film. I believe it was fueled by economically priced DsLR's and there was no cost in processing film. Many who never had a film camera bought in and it created the spike. Over the years the fall off is reflected in this forum. Back in the day this was a busy place, there are just a few regulars left.

In your graph though we should see an uptick in mirrorless when DsLR's are no more. I would have thought it would have been noticeable already.

Phones are getting better. I shot the X-mas present opening this year with my new iPad rather than the R5. Results were fine for what I was doing.
Possibly only people using ILC's in a few years will be those of us who use it as a specialty item rather than a tool to shoot family events.

Film to digital was a paradigm shift. A MILC is not really that different from a DLSR.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HDNitehawk

In your graph though we should see an uptick in mirrorless when DsLR's are no more. I would have thought it would have been noticeable already.

Phones are getting better. I shot the X-mas present opening this year with my new iPad rather than the R5. Results were fine for what I was doing.
Possibly only people using ILC's in a few years will be those of us who use it as a specialty item rather than a tool to shoot family events.

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I was surprised both by how high numbers were at in 2012 and that there had not been an uptick in 2020. But, thinking back to 2012 there were a good number out at the time (Sony, Oly, Samsung, and even the Canon EOS M). Many of them inexpensive and likely sold in good volumes.

What also interested me was the 141M number. I assume some ILCs met some sort of untimely demise and that a number of users have multiple bodies. But, assuming 100M ILC users, say the average user refreshes their camera every 15 years, that is 6.6M ILCs/yr. This doesn't include new users...and, of course, doesn't include attrition. But I have never had a problem selling a used lens: 7D, 5DIII, M, and M3 were all sold quickly (whereas some lenses haven't sold when I tried). I really do wonder if the 5M ILCs/year is the floor/long term sustained market. Trying to bracket the average ILC cost, assuming it is somewhere between $750 to $1,500, would be a $3.75B to $7.5B annual market, not including lenses.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by neuroanatomist

Film to digital was a paradigm shift. A MILC is not really that different from a DLSR.

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I was referring to the MILC sales cannibalizing the DLSR sales when DLSR's are no more. The uptick wouldn't be much but the two lines should combine.

However rethinking this the graph it is troubling in that MILC sales should be rising as DSLR falls. The opposite is true in that the MILC's are falling. Where will the bottom be? Brant's speculation of 5M might be high with this progression.

I agree it’s a concern for the industry. The mix is also important. 5M bodies where most are full frame with high margins (and probably multiple lens purchases and future upgrades) vs. the recent mix where >85% are APS-C, less expensive and lower margin bodies with probably no lenses beyond the 1-2 in the kit and replacements after failures. Very different.

I saw on CR today that Nikkei had released their 2022 data so I thought I would update these two figures:

Attachment 3036

So, DSLRs are not dead yet, actually accounting for 31% of sales in 2022. Interesting, at least to me, for mirrorless, 2022 was a rise over 2021, but only the 4th best year behind 2018, 2012, and 2017. While I do expect MILCs to increase their share as DSLRs declined, I am impressed by how flat the MILCs trend line is. Overall, a slight increase in 2021 and 2022. Hopefully 2020 was the bottom of the ILC market.

Then, between the brands:

Attachment 3037

Most of the conclusions are pretty obvious: Canon has maintained a dominant leading position; and the market share lost by Nikon was mostly picked up by Sony. This reversed itself ever so slightly (less than 1% market share) in 2022 from 2021, we'll see if that becomes a trend.

Fuji has been between 5.1 and 5.9 % and Panasonic has decreased from 4.7 to 4.2% from 2019 to 2022.

Thanks for the updated graphs!

Despite MILC sales being basically flat in terms of unit sales as you've plotted, it's worth noting that the while the unit value of DSLRs has also remained flat, the unit value for MILCs has trended upward significantly (Y-axis is in units of 1,000 yen).

Attachment 3038

The rising unit prices have mostly offset the revenues lost to falling unit sales for DSLRs.

Thanks. That is also interesting. You can see the shift to higher end MILCs while the mix of the DSLRs stays consistent. Interesting that the MILC is rising above the DSLR rather than up to that level. It almost has to mean people are buying a different mix of cameras. That people buying mirrorless are buying fewer entry level mirrorless cameras, whereas the mix of DSLR is staying consistent. The second part of that, unless those values are real (adjusted for inflation), DSLRs staying consistent is actually a price decline, granted, that would only explain a rise of 32% (US inflation calculator) and not 3x increase, which is, the more I think about it, shocking. The Canon 5 series has typically been $3300 at entry while the R5 came in at $3,900. An increase, sure, but 3x has to imply where people were buying $1000 DSLRs they are now buying $3,000 DSLRs. I.e. death to the entry level camera.

It looks like ~147 yen per $1USD....so 40,000 yen is $273 and 130,000 yen is $881. The divergence still interests me as it does indicate a change in camera mix, but, amending my previous statement, at those prices, there is room for entry level cameras.

The APS-C : FF ratio was ~9:1 for many years, but over the past few years it has shifted to ~7:1. That is certainly consistent with a greater fraction of people buying more expensive cameras, but APS-C is still a clear majority and many of those are entry level.

With the R7 and R8 being nearly the same price, we may see an uptick in full-frame adoption, but with no sign of it in spending trends.

For whatever it is worth, Canon recently announced that they were the #1 Mirrorless Brand in 2023 in the US.

But, CIPA also released their estimates for 2023. Below is based on estimated worldwide production.


Attachment 3060

This is an estimate of units produced. As you can see, there is an ever so slight increased in total units produced since 2020. Also, Mirrorless is now ~80% of the market. Which, as a statistic sounds impressive, but looking at the numbers, there were still 1.17 million DSLR units produced in 2023. In terms of margins, using Worldwide Shipment data for price, a mirrorless ILC averaged 116K yen (~$776 USD) while DSLRs averaged 48k yen (~$321 USD). Which is pretty similar to Neuro's chart above but does mark a decline in MILCs average price of 127K yen in 2022.

I haven't seen the NIKKEI data splitting out the rankings of the different brands. I think that usually comes out in late March or April.