1DX III last of a dying breed?

[Fast Glass]

So I had the glorious opportunity to rent the 1DX III. But it got me thinking, do you guys think it will be the last of the 1-series? My hypothesis is it may get one more refresh before being discontinued depending on how long they let it live. But there are so many EF lenses that still make Canon money and will take some time to populate the RF mount before they completely abandon the EF mount.

Also another thought would be, do you think the will just keep both systems like the EF-s mount???? At least for a good long while?

Food for thought. Kinda a weird feeling because the 1DX III is such a stellar camera and the 1-series has been in production for two decades. Kinda weird they won't perpetuate it's legacy in the RF mount version of the 1-series.

Anyway, I just was thinking when the demise of the pro-DSLR will happen.

[Kayaker72]

I do think the 1DXIII will be the last higher end DSLR. We might see a lower end body, but I even view that as unlikely. All accounts I read is that Canon is trying to transition 100% over to the "R" ecosystem. No new EF lenses, no new EF-s lenses, and likely no new DSLRs. I also strongly suspect that the M system will be phased out as well. It is all eggs in the R basket, at least for interchangeable lens cameras.

That said, I fully expect, and all the rumors indicate there will be a "R1" that will be the successor to the 1DXIII. Perhaps as soon as 2021. When you consider the 1DXIII's performance in liveview and the R5/6, the technology really does seem to be ready. It is likely more just manufacturing supply chain holding it back.

[Joel Eade]

I agree with Brant but your EF lenses will be useful for years to come as the EF to RF adapter works flawlessly. Even the EF-S lenses can be used with the R5 in 1.6 crop mode.

The cost of replacing my collection of EF lenses was the primary reason I held out for the R5 as opposed to switching to Sony.

I believe the R5 currently compares well with the performance of the 1DXIII and the technology will advance.

Also the lineup of RF lenses will grow and there will be options that may eventually make you want to switch over to some of the RF line.

In that regard I did purchase the 800mm f/11 and the 100-500mm RF lenses.

[clemmb]

It really all boils down to $$s. What is selling and what is not. As pro's move their purchases to the R and fewer to the 1D series, the cost margins go down, they will move to abandon the line.
I'm still using a 1DIII and 1DsIII and love them. I love the feel of the 1 series body. Some day I'll probably buy a newer 1 series used. Actually both of mine were used. I actually use my 1DIII most. Im still amazed how good 10mp can look even compared to the 21mp.

[Joel Eade]

It really all boils down to $$s

Agree completely .... my first 1 series was the Mark III which I obtained used and loved it. I still own a 1D MKIV which I bought used in 2012....it works well and produces nice images too.

As technology advances the bodies depreciate very quickly in comparison to the L series EF lenses but that doesn't mean they are incapable of very fine photographs ... I have 3 16x20 bird prints in our kitchen from the 1D MKIII that still look wonderful.

[Jonathan Huyer]

Yes for sure, there won't be a 1DX IV. The next one will be mirrorless, and I'm sure the specs will be quite incredible.

[Kayaker72]

I actually do not think that DSLRs need to be a dying breed. But, after I heard that mirrors themselves were labor intensive to manufacture and that EVFs were fairly inexpensive to manufacture, I knew that this transition was inevitable. Right now I suspect R&D costs are high, but eventually, the manufacturing costs are going to be lower for mirrorless cameras. In a shrinking market, in only makes sense to transition over to a technically equivalent (plus or minus) but lower cost technology.

So, as much as people might say this is about evolution, and technology....really, it is mostly about manufacturing cost. There are some advances that benefit from removing the mirror such as fps would always be limited by how quickly the mirror could move, it does appear some lenses will benefit from the shorter flange distance, and the noise the camera makes when taking a picture. But, I think they could have figured out how to achieve many of the advances being touted by MILCs in DSLRs had they invested in that R&D. Such as getting much better AF point spread in FF DSLRs. And as for the FPS, the 1DXIII has a mirror capable of 16 fps. As for Eye-AF, the "deep learning" in the 1DXIII is real, and I suspect with enough points in a AF sensor, they may have even been able to do Eye-AF with a PDAF system. But why develop new tech when a competitor (Sony) is moving to a technology that will eventually give them a cost advantage? Plus, if you think about it, Canon was developing "mirrorless" technologies for liveview as well as the mirror/PDAF system. So now they are developing tech for a single AF system that is used across all their ecosystems (cinema, R, maybe even security and other markets).

[Jonathan Huyer]

That's a good point, Brant. Definitely the mirrorless cameras should be simpler and easier to build, and should also be inherently more durable. I don't think that the focus system of a DSLR could ever match the potential of a mirrorless, given the difference in the way they work. The mirrorless camera has the incredible advantage of being able to use the primary sensor to get focus and exposure. The system on the 1DX III is pretty phenomenal, but the potential for mirrorless is so much more. Some things with mirrorless still have a ways to go, such as spool-up time after the camera has been idle. But I think the mirrorless version of the next 1DX will be quite a powerhouse.

[Fast Glass]

All good points, I don't think there is nessarily a wrong answer given so far. If they do make an RF replacement for the 1DX III very soon than I can see them not making a successor. But even then, that may not be a good enough reason to hack the 1DX III just then. Because the RF mount is still very much in it's infancy and is not able to really be a stand alone system just yet. So one of three things might happen.

One they ax the 1DX III very soon. Which in my mind is not nessarily the smartest move for Canon. But what do I know. Haha.

Second is they do not make a Mark IV but they let the 1DX III live longer than it might otherwise be. Just to recover it's development costs and still have a pro body for their EF line. As a lot of photographers will not switch to RF very quickly. This is still a fairly viable option I feel.

Or third they make a refresh, not really a huge upgrade. Just throw some bells and whistles so it still is attractive. But this is only likely in a 5 year plan. Which again probably is not as likely as option two.

My money is they will either keep the 1DX III alive for a while as an option for EF shooters or they will make a minor refresh if they choose to wait to propagate the RF mount.

To me axing the 1DX III so soon after development doesn't seem as likely to me because they have already spent a good amount I'm sure to develop it and at the very minimum need to make it profitable. And the longer they make it, to a point, the more they can recoup those costs and make money. Especially in the small market of pro bodies.

One other idea is if Nikon chooses to perpetuate the DSLR market for a while longer. Then Canon might choose to follow suite, maybe. And that is definitely possible as Nikon is not doing too well and sitting on existing technology for at least a little while might prove to be the most financially sound move.

Either way interesting times.

[Kayaker72]

I would expect the 1DXIII to be in production for several years and to overlap with the R1.

Looking over at the Canon website, the 1DXII, 5DIV, 6D, 6DII, 5DR, and 5DRs are all still listed. This is fairly typical of Canon as they keep older models for a couple of years after the newer model is released.

It all depends on sales, and when inventory/parts run out. But if I were to guess, the 1DXII, 6D, 5DR and 5DRs will be discontinued in 2021. The 5DIV and 6DII in 2022 maybe 2023 on the 5DIV. I suspect the 1DXIII will be given a solid 5-8 year run, so say 2025, which could be when the R1 Mk II is announced, or longer. One of the complaints about EVFs is eye strain for those continuously taking pictures for hours on end, which is one of the target markets of the 1DX series. Also, one bit of speculation I have read is that groups (Reuters, etc) with large EF lens inventories want a professional body and do not want to mess around with adapters. The 1DXIII keeps these groups happy and from switching companies while Canon develops their new RF lens lineup and those groups get ready for a massive purchase when they swap systems (thus, they may put off swapping systems for a long time).

So, no, I do not expect the 1DXIII to go anywhere anytime soon. Having played with it myself, I do not see the reason. Great great camera.