With the rumored f/4-5.6 100-400mm due out in the near future, will the current...

[DavidWare]

f/4.5-5.6 100-400mm see a price drop?

That lens and the Tokina f/2.8 11-16mm are tops on my list of what I want to get, but if it will be seeing a price drop in the future, then I will be willing to wait. I know no one can actually confirm if it will drop or not, but will lenses typically drop in price when a replacement comes out?

[neuroanatomist]

Not if the replacement is substantially more expensive, as this one will be. Cost of the original 70-200/2.8 IS went up a few hundred, and now prices of the original 24-70 are quite high, too. The used market follows suit.

[HDNitehawk]

On a few lenses we saw a price drop right before the release, which was Canon clearing its supply chain. But that hasn't always been the case and it has often went as Neuro described. For many of the more expensive lenses the used market stayed stable and in some cases used prices went up. Lens I have been watching because I intend to sell mine are the 300mm F/2.8 and the 500mm F/4, both of which are selling used now at the same price they were selling for new when they were discontinued.

Your best bet on a 100-400mm is to buy when they are offering the rebates. No new 100-400mm has even been announced. That being the case it could be years before you see one. There is no delivery date for the new 200-400mm, and even if there were you couldn't really conceder it a replacement since it will be 5 times the price of the 100-400mm.

So my thought is, no you will not be seeing a price drop.

[DavidWare]

I see, I figured as much, but having never dealt with something like this, I couldnt be sure. I was going off the basis of Canon's point and shoots price drops when a new model came out, because up until January when I got my T3i, that's all I'd ever had. Thank you two for your responses, hopefully I will be able to pick up the lens before the rebate is through.