I personally would go with the f/4, because I don't need the extra stop. I would then get the 200 f/2.8 with the saved money. The prime will be sharper at 200, and no IS shouldn't be a problem because you most likely wouldn't use the 70-200 @ f/2.8 unless you were going to stop action (unless portraits is your thing, but then getting the f/2.8 would be too easy a decision)