Bill; yes you are right you needed to raise your ISO, it is always a fight to get the speed you want and the aperture you want, then keep the ISO at a fair number. I wouldn’t worry about noise until you get past ISO800. Even at ISO1600 for the most part you should be ok but I try and avoid it if I can. With the picture you just took, I wouldn’t worry about noise much at all because of all the white snow.

So you were about 60’ from the tree? I am still thinking camera shake. Raise your ISO to get more speed and it would have helped.