With whales, they're too unpredictable, so shoot now and pick later is our approach. It becomes easy when you're sitting in front of the screen - my wife did "first cut" on 11k pictures in 5-6 hours, and I did "second cut" on 2200 pics in 2-3 hours.
Skip the 135/2 or 200/2.8. Either shoot the show with what you've got, leave the camera in the room and enjoy the show, or declare your independence and do something else. After that, you're still looking at 4-5 lenses, which is bordering on too many, though having matched cameras really helps. That said, you can probably choose between the longest lens and the macro on a per-adventure basis.
We took one flash, and it got used on formal night for maybe 30 shots total, plus the final night for maybe 5 shots with our favorite waiters.
I strongly suggest you make sure you're ready to go trekking with whatever you assemble. I basically went everywhere with my "standard kit": 200-400/4 on a monopod, 70-200/4 OR Zeiss 15/2.8 hanging from my right shoulder (via BlackRapid Double strap), and 24-70/2.8 hanging from my left shoulder. That put either my secondary wildlife lens (70-200) or the manual-focus ultrawide (Z15) near my dominant hand, and the occasionally used 24-70 in a less-convenient but still ready-to-shoot position. A Utility Case on my right hip had spare battery, gloves, memory cards (in a ThinkTank Wallet, perhaps the Pixel Rocket, on a leash so it couldn't go missing), right where my hand could go fishing without looking. A LensExchange 200AW on my left side held the lens I wasn't using, and since it'd go on the camera hanging from my right shoulder it kept things separated and sane during (admittedly rare) lens changes.
See above, and come up with a mechanism that works. In my case, I had the convenience of three cameras, so I just left a camera on the bazooka. Regardless, GET (or rent) A MONOPOD. I can't believe how often I'll use the monopod (and sometimes for odd uses) when I wouldn't think of a tripod, and with practice you can get real good at tossing the monopod into your left elbow so you can grab another camera and shoot without putting down/inverting the monopod. In general, assume you aren't going to bag the bazooka once you're aboard ship. We also had a tripod with gimbal for the big gun, and I think it only got used for one wildlife viewing aboard the ship.
I also encourage you to think through what you'd use when, and make sure it all works together. For me, it worked because I could make the 200-400 my main lens (of sorts), while keeping a secondary handy, and lens changes were truly at off-peak times because of the range I was holding. Had a 100-400 Mk II been available to me somehow, I might have rented the 600/4 instead, and then I suspect I'd be doing a LOT of shooting with the 600 in my elbow and another camera/lens in my hand. That might have made things tougher all around.
We boarded the ship with essentially four gear bags: my normal camera backpack had three bodies and four lenses, her normal camera backpack had two bodies and four lenses, my laptop backpack had laptop and such, and a "rolling duffel" had two tripods (one with ballhead, one with rented gimbal), monopod, and the 200-400 wrapped in a warm coat. It was a lot, but still quite carryable.





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