With the new EOS RP camera announced at an aggressive price point and several more R mount lenses coming through do you see this as the beginning of the end for EF mount lens development?
I'd think twice before putting any considerable sums of money into EF lenses now. The used market is contracting also. It appears to me that the R mount is the future.
Dave
See my photos:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dthrog00/
One of the primary rumors has been that there will be no EF lens released this year. Instead, Canon is really going to populate the RF lens lineup and with 4 lenses already released and the announcement of 5.5 more (85 f/1.2 non DS and DS counts for 1.5), they are on their way to having a nice lineup. I suspect the real answer will depend on if the RF cameras can completely usurp DSLRs. If they can, then we might be looking a short transition period with a few or maybe no more releases of EF lenses. But I suspect there will still be issues with OVF vs EVF (reports are EVF still not great in high contrast scenes, action), AF speed, battery life and a few others things. But, from what I've read, mirrorless cameras are less expensive to manufacture, which is likely the single largest factor in the transition, as the process is more automated. We may be seeing this benefit in the RP price point (and likely some competitive pricing to point Sony/Nikon) and even the R pricing (sensor is really 5DIV level).
My point being, as long as Canon sells DSLRs, I expect to have at least a few EF lens releases, just maybe not 2019 and maybe 2020 as they populate the RF lineup. The longer DSLRs are still used and still being bought, the longer I can see EF lenses being developed. It could likely be Canon themselves do not have a firm plan and are waiting to see how sales trend. Currently, DSLRs are still outselling mirrorless.
I can seen an exception for telephoto lenses as the RF mount has little to no benefit. With all the wildlife/sports DSLRs out there, I could see 300 III and 500 III's being released this year or next, for example.
Your point about the contraction of the used market is a blow. I hadn't been paying attention, and thought that may be a bit further off, but it does make sense and will make any eventual transition from EF to RF harder.
Maybe somewhat ironically but Canon also recently announced they had manufactured the 140 millionth lens......I would guess by far the EF lenses dominate this amazing legacy. How could they abandon progression of it with millions of functioning cameras out there? I hope they bring out a 1000mm f/4 DO before they quit
You are correct, the RF mount is the future. Although the EF mount isn't quite the past yet.
Speech Summary Jan 30, 2019 Analyst Meeting
Toshizo Tanaka
"This reflects improvements in mirrorless camera performance in such areas as autofocus, whichis now comparable to that of DSLRs"
"Against this backdrop, we are framing this year as one in which we take measure that will stabilizethis business in the future. Within this, accelerating the expansion of our mirrorless lineup is a priority"
"Additionally, we will work to improve product mix, raising the proportion attributable to full-framemodels that have high profitability by enhancing our mirrorless camera lineup and also expandingsales of full-frame models, particularly the EOS R."
"For interchangeable-lens cameras, the market in 2018 was down 10% to 10.3 million units. Our sales,were down 9% to 5.04 million units, which is a slower rate of decline than the market and reflects salesgrowth of our mirrorless cameras, including the EOS M50, a strategic entry class model that waslaunch in the first half. In 2019, we expect the market to continue to decline, shrinking 7% to 9.6million units.Despite facing a shrinking DSLR market, we expect our interchangeable-lens camerasales overall to be 4.7 million units as we grow unit sales through new mirrorless cameras, includingthe ones that were launched last year.""
Canon sees the DSLR market declining, for several reasons, but one obviously is mirror less is taking sales away. They are also moving toward FF, they consider the M series as an entry level body. I think that the first to go will be the Rebel series at some point in the future, when will be governed by economics and sales. As long as the it makes money you will see them, even if it is only a few.
They also believe the R's auto-focus is equal to DSLR's, which is really the largest stumbling block for a complete takeover of EF. The AF is equal to and really superior in some ways but not all. Not for action so the 1D line will be the last to go.
From my perspective, when Canon releases the rumored R equal to the 5Ds R and they have the new 24-70mm I will make the change. As of yet they do not have the body I want or the lenses I would want. But they are close.
The other issue, for me, is that all the major players in the mirror-less market are woefully behind in bringing out super-tele lenses
If Sony had a compatible 500 or 600 f/4 I would seriously consider switching to an A9 Body.
I guess it will eventually happen.
I doubt we see the supertele's until they release a 1D equivalent mirrorless.
It would make sense that they would come hand in hand at release.
You could buy an R with an adapter for your supertele. That is what I am going to do when they release the high mp version.
I am also curious if there will be a 1DX III. I could see the 300/500 III combo with that lens as well.Originally Posted by HDNitehawk
All of the high end RF lenses is certainly pointing toward better cameras in the pipeline, hopefully soon.
A 1DXIII with a 500 f/4 III...... Man I'd be all over that. Drooool..........
I'm interested in seeing what kind of "pro body" mirrorless they come up with (probably before the 2020 Olympics). But really, what would be the advantage over DSLR?? I can't think of any. It wouldn't be weight... it's the lens weight that matters most. And it won't be battery life. And this might not matter to everyone, but I'm sure a mirrorless would not work as well in cold weather as DSLR. So I'm pretty sure I'm a DSLR-for-life kind of guy.
Jonathan Huyer
www.huyerperspectives.com
I agree with many of the opinions expressed. I prefer the OVF too, but truthfully haven't given mirrorless much of a chance. Personally, I can't imagine a system switch due to the money lost in the process and I don't want to use bigger lenses on a tiny camera.
I hope they continue to make the mid tier DSLR cameras well into the future. I think they will make DSLRs, but I think many of those cameras will be the really expensive ones.
Dave
See my photos:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dthrog00/
As of now I am with you, sticking with DSLR because the mirrorless stuff (as a system) isn't complete enough for me to switch.
Currently I would consider the Sony a9 to probably be the king of mirrorless cameras for action type photography.
The biggest advantages it has over DSLR for me are
1.focus points across the entire sensor that work at f/8 and smaller apertures so no issues with supertele's and teleconverters
2.focus is straight on the sensor...no micro adjustment needed, AF is faster and it tracks moving subjects better
3.completely silent electronic shutter with no blackout shooting at high frame rates (up to 20 frames per sec)
4.electronic shutter up to 1/32,000 sec
Biggest problems are
1.poor battery life
2.lack of a large variety of lenses
3.no really high res model yet.
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